EUR/USD Edges Lower Amid Stronger Dollar, but ECB Outlook Offers Support

 Key Takeaways:

*Dollar strength following U.S. trade court ruling weighs on EUR/USD.

*ECB’s inflation outlook supports potential for hawkish policy shift, limiting downside.

EUR/USD traded slightly lower as the U.S. Dollar extended gains following a U.S. trade court ruling that invalidated President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to implement global tariffs. The decision was perceived by markets as a potential sign of easing trade tensions, thereby strengthening the greenback.

However, the Euro’s downside was limited by expectations of future policy tightening from the European Central Bank. The ECB’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey showed inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 2.9%, potentially bolstering the case for a more hawkish stance. If this trend continues, it could lend fundamental support to the single currency in the coming sessions.

Looking ahead, investor focus will turn toward the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes for insight into future rate paths, as well as upcoming ECB commentary and data to further gauge the EUR/USD outlook.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD, H4

The pair is currently under pressure after breaking below both its ascending trendlines and the 1.1270 support level. 

MACD confirms growing bearish momentum, while RSI at 37 suggests potential for further downside. If selling pressure persists, EUR/USD could decline toward the next support at 1.1210, with a further move to 1.1140 possible.

However, failure to break lower could prompt a short-term rebound toward 1.1270 in a consolidation phase.

Resistance Levels: 1.1270, 1.1370
Support Levels: 1.1210, 1.1140