Euro Rises as Hopes for Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Grow

 Key Takeaways:

*Market optimism rises as diplomatic channels reopen between Russia and Ukraine.

*Trump’s active mediation sparks hopes for ceasefire, although no truce has been secured.

*Euro supported by potential easing of geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe.

Prospects for resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict have offered a glimmer of hope for the eurozone economy, lifting sentiment across European markets. On Monday, former U.S. President Donald Trump held a two-hour call with Russian President Vladimir Putin—marking their third official discussion since January—followed by conversations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and leaders from key European nations including Germany, France, and Finland.

Although a formal truce has yet to be achieved, Trump claimed via Truth Social that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to engage in “immediate ceasefire” talks. While Ukraine and its Western allies continue to push for an unconditional ceasefire, Russia insists that its core security concerns must be addressed first, emphasizing that a ceasefire will only follow progress on what it considers the “root causes” of the crisis.

Despite lingering uncertainties, this renewed diplomatic momentum has been viewed positively by investors, bolstering the euro as a proxy for broader European stability. Moving forward, markets are likely to remain sensitive to any developments in these high-level talks, as the path toward peace could have significant implications for energy prices, inflation, and economic activity across the eurozone.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD, H4

EUR/USD continues to trade on a bullish trajectory and is currently testing a key resistance level at 1.1295. The MACD is showing signs of strengthening bullish momentum, with widening histogram bars supporting the upside bias. Meanwhile, the RSI stands at 63, remaining comfortably above the midline, which suggests that buyers are still in control. 

Should this bullish momentum persist and EUR/USD successfully break above the 1.1295 resistance, the pair could extend its gains toward the next resistance level at 1.1365. 

On the other hand, if buying pressure fades and the pair fails to sustain a breakout, a pullback may occur toward the support level at 1.1210, with deeper consolidation possible near 1.1140.

Resistance Levels: 1.1295, 1.1365

Support Levels: 1.1210, 1.1140